Chapter 6 · Financial dossier

USD 43 M revenue, 48.6% EBITDA, IRR 22–28%.

The full economic model for an 80,000 L/day integrated milk-powder plant in Syria. Every figure below is drawn from the July 2026 feasibility study — CAPEX built on field-verified Chinese-OEM quotes, OPEX built on Syrian input prices, revenue built on the local vs CIF price gap.

Raw milk intake

80,000 L/day

Annual revenue

USD 43.19 M

EBITDA

USD 20.99 M · 48.6%

Net profit

USD 15.85–16.21 M

IRR

22–28%

NPV @ 18%

USD 25–35 M

Payback

4.5–6 yrs

All-in CAPEX

USD 4.2–7.7 M

§6.1

Syrian market context.

Local production covers only part of demand; the country imports condensed dairy and powders at scale, and the regional MENA infant-formula market is compounding at 8.4% per year.

Supply & demand

Local milk production 2025 (est.): ~462,000 t/yr; Source: FAO
Current import gap: ~250,000 t/yr; Source: Estimate
Condensed milk imports 2024: USD 9.58 M; Source: OEC
MENA infant-formula market (2025): USD 3.7 B · CAGR 8.4%; Source: Industry

Raw-milk prices

Channel	SYP/L	USD/L
Farm-gate (Hama / Aleppo 2024)	7,000 – 8,000	0.48 – 0.55
Factory-gate wholesale	9,500 – 10,000	0.65 – 0.68
Pasteurised retail	14,000 – 18,000	1.00 – 1.30

Reference FX: SYP 14,500 / USD (parallel-market rate, end 2024).

Powder prices (USD/kg)

SKU	Local	CIF
WMP 26%	4.20 – 5.00	3.50 – 4.00
SMP	3.80 – 4.50	2.30 – 3.58
Instant WMP	5.50 – 6.50	4.80 – 5.50
FFMP 28%	3.20 – 3.80	2.40 – 2.80
IMF	18 – 28	16 – 24

§6.2

CAPEX — all-in USD 4.2–7.7 M.

Range: $4,212,000 — $7,690,000

Core equipment FOB China$2,160,000 — $3,550,000

Sea freight, insurance, handling$100,000 — $200,000

Syrian customs (5–10%)$110,000 — $350,000

Installation & technical supervision$100,000 — $200,000

Technical training$50,000 — $100,000

Civil works & building$500,000 — $1,000,000

Utilities (boiler, chiller, compressor, RO)$300,000 — $500,000

Working capital$500,000 — $1,000,000

Contingency (10%)$392,000 — $790,000

§6.3

OPEX — annual USD 22.19 M.

Raw milk = 77% of OPEX

Raw milk (26.4 M L × $0.65)$17,160,00077.1%

Packaging (bags, tins, FIBC)$1,800,0008.1%

CIP chemicals & cleaning$150,0000.7%

Electricity (8,000 h × 800 kW × $0.08)$512,0002.3%

Steam (4,000 t × $30/t)$120,0000.5%

Diesel / gas (backup gensets)$200,0000.9%

Direct labour (80 × $6,000)$480,0002.2%

Indirect labour (50 × $5,000)$250,0001.1%

Management & staff (20 × $12,000)$240,0001.1%

Maintenance & spares (~3% CAPEX)$240,0001.1%

Insurance & miscellaneous$200,0000.9%

Regulatory fees & taxes$600,0002.7%

Marketing & distribution$500,0002.2%

§6.4

Revenue mix — USD 43.19 M / yr.

60% SMP / 40% WMP + cream stream

Product	Volume / yr	Price (USD)	Revenue (USD)
WMP 26%	3,300 t/yr	$4.80	$15,840,000
SMP	2,400 t/yr	$4.20	$10,080,000
Fresh cream 40%	1,500,000 L/yr	$6.00	$9,000,000
Butter	200 t/yr	$14.00	$2,800,000
AMF	500 t/yr	$8.00	$4,000,000
Ghee (samn)	50 t/yr	$15.00	$750,000
By-product whey / WP	900 t/yr	$0.80	$720,000
Total			$43,190,000

§6.5

From revenue to net profit.

Annual revenue$43.19 M

Operating costs (OPEX)−$22.19 M

EBITDA (48.6% margin)$21.00 M

Depreciation (10-yr straight-line)−$0.64 M

Interest (60% loan @ 9%)−$0.32 M

Profit before tax$20.04 M

Corporate tax (20%)−$4.01 M

Net profit (36.7–37.5% margin)$16.03 M

§6.6

Feasibility indicators.

IRR (expected)

22 – 28%

NPV @ 18% discount

USD 25 – 35 M

Payback period

4.5 – 6 yrs

Breakeven utilisation

~58%

§6.7

Sensitivity analysis.

Three scenarios stress the model against milk price, WMP export price and FX.

Optimistic

Milk $0.60/L · WMP $6.00/kg · FX 12,500

NPV @ 18%

USD 38 M

Payback

3.5 yrs

Base case

Milk $0.65/L · WMP $4.80/kg · FX 14,500

NPV @ 18%

USD 28 M

Payback

4.5 yrs

Conservative

Milk $0.75/L · WMP $4.00/kg · FX 15,000

NPV @ 18%

USD 10 M

Payback

7 yrs

§6.8

Benchmark vs published studies.

Sanchez et al. (2022) modelled a smaller SMP plant at USD 22.7 M CAPEX using European equipment (GEA). Direct Chinese-OEM sourcing cuts that by 60–80% while retaining 85–90% of the throughput performance — the single largest capital-efficiency lever available to a Syrian project.

§6.9

Investment recommendation.

01
Import gap
Syria imports at least USD 9.58 M/year of condensed dairy — a captive baseline market before exports.
02
MENA infant-formula demand
The MENA IMF market reached USD 3.7 B in 2025 and is compounding at 8.4% per year.
03
Price headroom
WMP retails locally at USD 4.20–5.00/kg versus USD 3.50–4.00 CIF — a defensible margin against imports.